Posted: March 19, 2010

By Philip Newswanger
philip.newswanger@insidebiz.com

The job picture may get worse before it gets better.

Future jobs won't be the same jobs that were lost during the recession.

Collaboration will replace the lone-ranger syndrome when it comes to business and commercial ventures.

Education will be lifelong, not just a temporary blip in an individual's career.

There will be lots of change in the economy, from how people learn, to where they work and what type of job they do.

Nothing will be the same anymore.

These were some of the comments from five panelists at the recent Cox Business Executive Discussion Series: "Job Recovery in Hampton Roads." The series, which includes four panel-discussion breakfasts a year that are open to the public, is presented by Cox in partnership with Inside Business. The discussion on job recovery was held March 16 at the Norfolk Waterside Marriott.

Panelists were asked to address where the jobs have gone and which jobs will be in demand in the future.

Cathy Lewis, host and executive editor at WHRO, moderated the discussion.

"We are challenged with jobs coming in and with jobs going out," she said, addressing an audience of nearly 250. "We are very anxious about the job recovery."

Lewis asked attendees who were seeing a recovery in jobs to raise their hands.

"Some, but not a lot," she said, about the sporadic show of hands.

"We are going to start with a bad story and hope to end with a good story," said Vinod Agarwal, professor of economics at Old Dominion University.

The bad story: Hampton Roads lost 24,800 jobs between March 2008 and March 2009 and 27,000 jobs between calendar years 2008 and 2009.

All sectors saw a decline in employment, except for education and health care, which gained 1,800 jobs, and government, which gained 500 jobs, Agarwal said.

"In 2010, we expect job losses to continue, but we should see a gain in the second half," he said.

"I thought you said there was some good news there, but I didn't hear any," said Rodney Jordan, regional coordinator for One Economy, a global nonprofit that delivers technology and information to low-income communities.

"The good news," Agarwal said later in the discussion, "is that the U.S. in 2009 saw significant gains in labor productivity. As the economy starts to recover, you will have to hire others."

Jordan said he works in sub-regions of Hampton Roads with Depression-level unemployment. He cited a Washington Post article that said the unemployment rate among African Americans between 16 and 34 percent.

"I have found unevenness when times are good and greater unevenness when times are bad," Jordan said.

To counter the trend, he suggested tapping into all the region's assets, especially the universities.

He also proposed using future broadband technology to create jobs for young people and said the region should look to other organizations and areas for answers, instead of the usual partners.

"I think we must be more inclusive," Jordan said. "We must cast a wider net."

Tidewater Community College's enrollment has skyrocketed by 20 percent over the past year and 85 percent over the past 12 years, said Deborah DiCroce, president of the college.

"I would like to say it's our brand or our leadership, but it's the economy," DiCroce said.

More people have headed back to school for training and education either because they have lost their jobs or have had their hours and wages reduced.

TCC has benefited from the trend.

DiCroce offered a few suggestions on the future of education and training.

"The lines are blurred," she said. "Don't ever assume your education will be forever."

She added, "The rules of curriculum development have changed dramatically."

In the past, a curriculum was developed with the thought it would last for 25 years, DiCroce said. Now a curriculum has a shelf life.

"Education is no longer place-bound," she said, adding that requests for online courses have shot up by 300 percent.

"The new constant that must be embraced - not just accepted - is change," she said. "The lone-ranger competition doesn't work today. Collaborative opportunities to compete is the trend."

Judy Begland, president and CEO of Opportunity Inc., said the conversation three years ago was about the scarcity of workers.

"It's no longer a scarcity question," Begland said. "The question is: How do we grow these jobs?"

Opportunity Inc. helps job-seekers hurt by layoffs. She cited the closing of the Ford plant and Cooper Vision, both in Norfolk, and the International Paper plant in Franklin, which is expected to close this spring.

"More and more jobs are going away because of foreign competition," Begland said. "There are whole industries leaving the U.S. The question is: How do we replace those jobs?"

Job opportunities exist in the maritime industry, health care and the technical aspects of manufacturing, such as robotics.

"I do believe there will be those opportunities," Begland said.

She suggested that workers invest in skills and education for a knowledge economy.

"Without education and training in this world, it's hard to go anywhere," Begland said.

Darryl Gosnell, president and CEO of the Hampton Roads Economic Development Alliance, said his group's mission is to recruit new companies to the region.

Gosnell sees job growth in modeling and simulation, aerospace, maritime and logistics and possibly the relocation of a corporate headquarters to the region.

He said the alliance is getting more inquiries from companies and more companies are visiting the area, indicating somewhat of a recovery. More companies announced their intention to set up shop in the region in 2009 than in 2008, another sign that companies are beginning to expand.

But Gosnell said the region suffers from one drawback - its identity.

"A lot of people in California never heard of Hampton Roads," he said. So he educates site consultants and companies on the region.

Agarwal cautioned that the loss of a carrier would cost the regional economy $450 million.

"If a carrier leaves, it's a concern for 2014 or 2015," Agarwal said.

He said that 75 percent of the region's economy was tied directly to Department of Defense dollars, underscoring how the region is too dependent on government dollars.nib